A Trump Promise = A Broken Promise
On This Day In 2019
This concept was so important to Trump's image: In the 2016 race, he campaigned relentlessly on “bringing manufacturing back to the United States.” Arguably, it’s what got him elected. But he didn’t deliver.
You may not love graphs. But please take a moment to check out this chart. To us, it looks like the steady growth in manufacturing jobs that Obama kick-started in ’09 simply continued at a similar pace under Trump. But, are we missing something? Do you see a magical leap upwards in manufacturing jobs during Trump’s term? We don't.
Data from Bureau of Labor Statistics, as graphed by the Indy Star. Under President Donald Trump, manufacturing jobs grew at about 1.2% annually before the pandemic wiped out any gains. The sector grew at a similar rate under most of President Barack Obama’s years.
So, if things simply continued on the same path they were before, where's Trump's great accomplishment? Hint: There isn't one.
The Great Disappearing Act: By 2019, after three years of Trump’s term, Michigan, Ohio, Indiana, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania were each down 20,000 to 40,000 manufacturing jobs. Other rust belt states reported comparable declines. U.S. manufacturing in the Midwest appeared to be disappearing, but on September 10, 2020, Trump told a rally audience in Michigan, “You better vote for me, I got you so many damn car plants.”
A net loss for Trump: Total job losses (including in manufacturing) during the Trump Administration totaled 4 million, according to the Center for American Progress Action Fund. He was the only president in the last 80 years to net job losses.
Obviously Covid impacted jobs. But the Economic Policy Institute (and others) put much of the blame on Trump’s trade policies, which “wiped out much of the last decade’s job gains in U.S. manufacturing.”
“Trump's trade wars are almost singlehandedly to blame for his failure to do more for the manufacturing sector,” added Peterson Institute senior fellow Jacob Funk Kirkegaard said.
So even before Covid, the Wall Street Journal OTDI 2019 was citing “slipping” sales in certain American products as an ominous sign of declining domestic manufacturing.
The real loss While manufacturing jobs are, of course, important, they are only a relatively small slice of the overall American economy. By focusing so much on that sector, Trump lost the opportunity to help America take or cement the lead in newer fields which will be so vital in the 21st century and beyond, such as AI, green tech, and quantum computing.
Do you have a second for a quick example? You may recall that Trump made a big deal about forcing the Carrier air conditioning factory in Indiana to stop sending jobs to Mexico. He got that done even before he took office! Well, the story's not so simple anymore.
As the Indy Star reports, "Workers quickly learned the deal would only save some of their jobs, despite $7 million in state tax credits and training grants incoming Vice President Mike Pence had arranged as one of his final acts as Indiana governor. More than 600 people would still be laid off...
"Today, about 800 workers whose jobs Carrier had planned to send to Mexico remain at the plant, but they are now required to work eight- to 10-hour shifts, seven days a week. Many haven't had a single day off in more than a month....
"'We’re tired and we’re exhausted," said Jennifer Shanklin-Hawkins, 45, of Indianapolis, who has worked at the plant for 18 years. "They’re not treating us right.'
"Back at the Carrier plant, several workers told IndyStar they won't vote for Trump (in 2020) ...."It was a big publicity scheme," said (Rochelle Evers) of Trump's focus on the factory in 2016. 'That's all it was.'"
And, cumulatively, other plants in Indiana lost far more jobs than Trump "saved" at Carrier.
Yet another broken Trump promise.
Dive Deeper
The Wall Street Journal’s analysis is here
The Indianapolis Star’s report on Trump’s Carrier campaign promise is at:
Politico’s analysis of the Trump record on manufacturing can be found here:
USA Today's "Fact Check" revealing a 4 million-worker job loss under Trump is here:
Economic Policy Institute analyzed the Trump-era manufacturing sector
DW published its assessment of Trump’s broken promise to bring back manufacturing