“One of The Dumbest Moves of His Presidency.” And The Most Dangerous.
On This Day In 2018
We made a deal: In 2015, during the Obama Administration, the United States of America joined with Iran, Russia, France, China, Germany, and the 28 countries of the EU in “The Iran Nuclear Deal” - the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
Our goal was to prevent Iran from creating a stockpile of weapons-grade fissionable material. As per the Deal, Tehran took several steps to curb its development of nuclear weapons and allow inspectors to certify they were keeping their end of the bargain. It was imperfect, but most such compromises are. Despite its flaws, it was praised as a stunning achievement for our alliance.
“A horrible one-sided deal”: Trump, though, railed against the pact, claiming that “It didn’t bring calm, it didn’t bring peace, and it never will.” What really seemed to gall him, though, is that this was Obama’s deal, not his.
So, he ignored advisors. He ignored the pleas of those allies. He ignored the concept that America’s signature actually means something. And most importantly, he ignored the critical fact that the deal seemed to be successfully suppressing Iran’s nuclear program.
So OTDI 2018 Donald Trump pulled the U.S. out of the agreement and our multinational alliance.
Backlash: Opponents of Trump’s withdrawal feared that his actions would compel hardline Iranian factions to retaliate against Israel and/or the United States, and that it would drive a Middle East arms race. Obama publicly rebuked the Trump Administration for giving the world a “losing choice between a nuclear-armed Iran or another war in the Middle East.”
Sure enough, after the U.S. broke its side of the deal, Iran re-started its nuclear program…at a cranked-up velocity, gaining valuable years of experience and capability. And Iran continued to fund and train terrorists. And by now, as of 2024, it’s believed that Iran could build a nuclear weapon in just a few weeks if the ayatollah gives the green light.
So, it was a disastrous mistake: “Yes, a lot of ordinary Iranians have suffered as a result of U.S. sanctions (which Trump imposed), but the clerical regime is still in power, hard-liners have gained more influence, and Iran has resumed enriching uranium, increased its stockpile eightfold, and cut its breakout time in half.” And, of course, they kicked out the nuclear inspectors, so now they’re doing it unburdened and in secrecy.
In Slate, Fred Kaplan opined: “Donald Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal in one of the dumbest moves of his presidency—the dumbest when it comes to foreign policy. This is not a partisan statement… Iran is closer to building a nuclear bomb than it ever has been.”
Here at OTDI, we would take it one step further and note that rarely since World War II has a U.S. leader blundered as unnecessarily as Trump did. And perhaps he did it, to some extent, simply to spite his predecessor he hates. A massive unforced error.
Latest update: Perhaps in retribution for our breaking our word, Iran funneled even more weapons to Hamas, Hezbollah, and other dangerous players throughout the region. It’s believed they supported the October 7 war Hamas launched on Israel. And then Iran themselves launched 300 missiles directly towards Israel in April 2024. Obama’s critique of Trump’s move proved completely prescient. It’s difficult to see any benefit the United States or our allies reaped from Trump’s decision.
Dive Deeper
President Obama announces the Iran nuclear deal
The New York Times tries to explain Trump’s withdrawal
ABC quotes Obama’s criticism
Kaplan, in Slate, assessed the impact of Trump’s withdrawal
The BBC reports on Iran’s decision to extend a nuclear monitoring deal
Foreign Policy has the data.