We're F*cked

On This Day In 2015

Jul 19, 2024

Programming note: This OTDI is a bit longer than most, and it's more proscriptive and preachy than usual. We thank you for reading!

**"We're F*cked."** That what's a highly-experienced, well-connected former Democratic operative told us earlier this week. He has now given up on the presidential race for 2024.

In our view: He's wrong. But you know who is f*cked? Donald Trump. Don't just take our word for it, take it from these experts too:

(Note: In quoting these experts today, we have blended sentence fragments and removed ellipses, for the sake of grammatical simplicity.)

Expert #1: The Editorial Board of the Washington Post

"A man as objectionable as Donald Trump will flame out of the race, eventually. The big question is what effect his irresponsible demagoguery will have on Washington."

Trump has a "disfigured moral compass, embrace(s) anger, selfishness and suspicion, (and has made) reprehensible, bizarre, and offensive statements." He has also "abandond(ed) any sense of shame," and has "no conception of courage."

His strategy involves "extreme pandering that tickles populist nerve endings without regard to accuracy, fairness or consequences. The Republican Party is now cursed by association with Mr. Trump, a man whose foremost political talent is to reflect the worst instincts of American society."

Expert #2: Conservative columnist Bret Stephens at the NYT:

"Donald Trump’s finished as a serious contender for high office. Because he has been written off so often in the past, it seems foolhardy to do it again. Every time he is written off, his supporters seem to draw energy from their purported irrelevance. (But, not this time). He’s yesterday’s man. This is an observation made from an objective reading of political reality. Trump is finally being abandoned by many of his usually unflagging apologists and enablers in right-wing media, whose influence will be felt downstream. Trump has proved once again that he’s toxic and can never again win a general election."

Why do we bring these up?

Well, that first WaPo piece was published OTDI...2015. Trump seemed so crushed back then it didn't even occur to the WaPo Editorial Board -- as experienced a group of political journalists/analysts as any in the world -- there was a chance Trump could win.

That Stephens piece was published after the 2022 midterms.

Obviously those two national treasures couldn't have been more wrong about Trump's prospects. Similarly, we believe those who are now saying the Democrats have no shot (and that Trump is a lock) in '24 are equally wrong.

"Hey, OTDI," you might respond to us. "That WaPo piece came a year and a half before that election, and the Stephens forecast was two years before this election. So obviously things can change if there's enough time. But now, in mid-July, it's too late for the Dems. We're f*cked."

Okay, well then here's a piece published by the NYT on Election Day 2016, just hours before the polls opened on the east coast. It's about his final campaign stop. Is that close enough to Election Day for you?

"Gone were the lasers and the smoke machines. Gone were the glamorous adult children, dressed up and shined. Gone, even, were the frenzied, angry, overflow crowds. When Mr. Trump took the stage, his 34-minute speech felt like an afterthought. Mr. Trump had lost some of his luster. He sounded subdued and looked tired, almost bleary-eyed. He gripped the lectern with both hands, as if for support. Even his voters seemed to lack their usual vim.

Still, the crowd was largely excited to greet the Trump phenomenon one last time...the last time that Mr. Trump would stand before an adoring crowd, soaking in its adulation. (But) the send-off hardly seemed the culminating rally that Mr. Trump, a consummate showman, would have chosen for himself.

Even Mr. Trump seemed to realize that despite all the bluster, this rally could be his last, ever. Yet by the time he slowly walked off, clapping and raising both fists just above his shoulders in something of a victory shrug, the convention hall was more than half empty."

What's our point?

Although polling has been turning against the Dems, the concept that now it's time to give up is wrong. It's been an extraordinarily lucky month for Trump. But given how odious a person he is, and given how ruinous his policies are, there's every reason to expect Trump's streak won't continue. There are half a dozen ways Trump could screw things up, and the Dems could reverse their polling slide; let us know if you'd like the list.

So what can you do? Politics is not a spectator sport. Your rooting for the Philadelphia Phillies, for example, isn't going to increase their chances of winning. But, politics is not like that. You personally, "dear reader" can make a difference. Back the right guy in Pennsylvania, and you can sway an election.

Anybody want to guess how many eligible adult American citizens did not vote in the 2020 election? 80 million. That's more people than who voted for Trump, and only slightly fewer than who voted for Biden. Why didn't they vote? Because, presumably, they didn't understand the differences between the candidates well enough. If they truly understood why Trump was so awful for our nation, they wouldn't have sat on their couches.

So...let them know! It's hard to change the minds of a MAGA fan. But surely some of those 80MM are persuadable. Fortunately, the Dem party knows how to reach them. Letter-writing campaigns. Phone-a-thons. Door-knocking. Editorials. But, they need your help. So, we're taking this opportunity to encourage you to please identify which method you're most comfortable with and go do it. Reach out to your local Dem office and they'll guide you.

Of course, we'd like to think that OTDIs can be particularly effective in this effort too. So, please feel free to forward them along. Liberals, conservatives, non-involveds. "They'll tell two friends, and they'll tell two friends." And, eventually, these daily missives will make it into the hands of those who will find them educational.

And it's not just the 80MM, it's also "young voters." Polls show them leaning towards Trump. Maybe it's because so many of them weren't politically aware during the Trump era. Now, they want to "educate themselves" so they can "form their own opinion."

Heck, even among those who pay attention, "Trump Amnesia" is a serious concern. Reminders, and strategies mapped out by Dem offices, can help.

And, of course, more support for Blue at the top will translate into more support for down ballot Blues too.

Btw, here are four key anti-Trump messages you can focus on:

In the Art of the Deal, Trump admitted that he likes to lie, and sees nothing wrong with it. It's part of salesmanship. So it's not surprising he lied 30,573 times while in office. So now when he tells you he's going to do something, or that he has done something wonderful, there's literally nothing he says which is believable. Nothing. So how can you say you like his policies if he lies about how effective they were?
NBC News polled 44 people who had top or Cabinet-level positions under Trump. Of those, only four supported his re-election. Only 4 out of 44. If those people -- who got to see him up-close-and-personal -- feel he's unsuited for office, why does somebody who's never met him think they know better?
The vast majority of Americans are pro-choice. Trump and his appointed justices took away that right. Yet, remarkably, 18% of those surveyed blame Biden for the Dobbs decision, because he was in office at the time. They simply don't understand how the appointment of SCOTUS justices work. It's worth trying to get through to them.
No matter what Biden says or does, or how he looks, he has never told Russia to "do whatever they hell they want" to Western Europe.

We'll leave you with this final Trump prediction. This New York Magazine cover ran the week before the 2016 election. So, we are f*cked...but only if we give up now. If a phoenix can arise from Mar-a-Lago, it can do so from Wilmington (and elsewhere) too.